Russia has been limiting its exports with taxes and a quota since 2021 in hopes of slowing domestic food inflation.

The nation may export 39 million tonnes of wheat in 2022-23, said Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR during a conference in Geneva. Exports in the current marketing year are expected to reach 32 million to 32.5 million tonnes.

Sovecon, another agriculture consultancy in Moscow, raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop by 1.2 million tonnes to a new record-high of 88.6 million tonnes.

Sovecon estimated Russia’s 2022-23 wheat exports at 41 million tonnes earlier in May. It estimates that supplies from Russia will account for more than 20% of the 2022-23 global wheat trade.

“Russia’s strategic goal now is to ensure uninterrupted exports of what may be a massive harvest,” Rylko said.

Ukraine’s Black Sea ports remain blocked, limiting its exports, due to Russia’s invasion of the nation in February.