Ukraine in 2023 to harvest about 40 mln tonnes of crops due
Problems with logistics and power supply during the export of agricultural products from Ukraine during the war make the cultivation of grain crops unprofitable, therefore, in 2023, the total harvest in the country will be reduced three times compared to the record pre-war level, to 40 million tonnes from almost 120 million tonnes.
“Last year, 120 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds were harvested, this year they have already fallen to 60 million tonnes, and next year, according to my forecasts, there will be 40 million tonnes, that is, a drop of 300%! At the same time, the entire infrastructure of Ukraine is tailored for a harvest of 120 million tonnes and even more.
“There will be a very sharp shortage of wheat, barley and corn. There will be enough sunflower and soybeans, these are high-margin crops, and corn will not be sown. Now it is expensive to dry, this year’s harvest cannot be harvested, it cannot be exported.
the reduction in the grain harvest will lead to a collapse in the
value of infrastructure assets in Ukraine, such as ports, elevators and vehicles, as well as a sharp increase in world prices for wheat, corn and barley. In this sense, the reduction in the wheat harvest is especially serious, since this is a “politicized” crop associated with world food security, the shortage of which will lead to an increase in its quotations on the main world exchanges.
Thus, the state should urgently start issuing loans to farmers under state guarantees in order to prevent stagnation in the gross harvest for several years after 2023. This will allow Ukraine, with a relatively small investment, to avoid a reduction in the harvest and the associated decline in the farming and grain trading industries, as well as the bankruptcy of logistics and infrastructure companies.
تاریخ: شنبه ١٠ دی ١٤٠١ ساعت: ٠٩:٤٩